Comments on: Dealing with Risk http://math.blogoverflow.com/2014/12/15/dealing-with-risk/ The Mathematics Stack Exchange Blog Fri, 18 Sep 2015 11:57:28 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.5.6 By: Mario Carneiro http://math.blogoverflow.com/2014/12/15/dealing-with-risk/#comment-2023 Sat, 27 Dec 2014 03:08:53 +0000 http://math.blogoverflow.com/?p=379#comment-2023 Seems like the 61.3% calculation is assuming that the replacement is perfect and never fails. Won’t they have to keep saving up after a replacement event even if they can cover it the first time, since the replacement could also fail? In this case there would seem to be a 61.3% chance of failure for every replacement event, so the probability of surviving indefinitely is 0%.

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